Expected Value = Risk + Network + Luck

And how much intelligence doesn't really matter

I met a lot of people worth $100M+ while a VC and realized:

EV (Business Value, Net Worth) = Risk + Network + Luck

Risk = risk gets you ownership which gets you rewards. Even those who weren’t particularly skilled, some of whom didn’t get enormously lucky, but who took risk and stuck it out, eventually did well

Network = a lot can be saved or boosted by very solid people vouching for a business

Luck = timing + “rightness”. Business is about being right (customers will pay, expenses make sense) and better businesses are more right. Some people stumble upon solving problems that are more right

Far down the line is intelligence, it’s not that success can’t come from intelligence but intelligence doesn’t lead to success. Because the other factors are much more material.

Bonus: Endurance. If you compound over a long period of time, the absolute value becomes meaningful. Chasing shiny new paths, losing motivation and burning out, etc. significantly harms EV